Thailand Amid U.S.-China Tensions: Legal Impacts and Perspectives

In recent years, tensions between the United States and China have intensified, stemming from a wide range of issues—from trade wars and technological rivalry to geopolitical disputes in the Indo-Pacific region. These conflicts are not confined to the two superpowers alone but have reverberated across the globe, especially in Southeast Asia, where countries face the challenge of maintaining a delicate balance between the interests of both sides.

As a developing country with strong economic, diplomatic, and security ties to both the United States and China, Thailand finds itself inevitably affected by the strategic confrontation between these two powers. The resulting changes have impacted not only the domestic economy but also extended to dimensions such as foreign policy, law, national security, and long-term development structures.

🏦 Economic Impacts: Trade and Investment

Thailand is a highly trade-dependent country, with the value of international trade accounting for over 80% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This highlights the critical role that exports and imports play in the Thai economy.

One of the key maritime routes for Thailand’s international trade is the South China Sea, a major shipping corridor connecting Thailand to global markets—particularly in Northeast Asia (including China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan), as well as to the United States and Europe.

However, China’s increasingly assertive actions in the South China Sea—such as the construction of artificial islands, installation of military equipment, and claims of sovereignty over disputed areas—have raised international concerns, especially regarding the principle of freedom of navigation, which is fundamental to global trade.

Potential impacts on Thailand include:

• Higher logistics costs: If maritime routes become unsafe or are dominated by China, shipping companies may be forced to reroute through longer, more expensive paths.
  
• Investment uncertainty: Foreign investors, particularly from the U.S. and its Western allies, may delay or reconsider investment in Thailand if the country is perceived as being too close to geopolitical flashpoints.
  
• Indirect economic pressure: Thailand faces the complex task of maintaining good relations with both China and the United States. Economic pressures may arise, for instance, when Thailand must choose between competing technologies or exclusive trade arrangements aligned with one side or the other.
  

As a result, the U.S.-China tensions not only directly affect Thailand’s trade routes but also influence the broader investment climate and long-term economic trajectory of the country.

🤝Geopolitical Impacts: Security and International Relations

Thailand occupies a strategic position in Southeast Asia and maintains deep ties with both China and the United States across diplomacy, economics, and defense. China is Thailand’s largest trading partner, while the U.S. remains a key military ally, exemplified by longstanding joint exercises such as “Cobra Gold.”

However, China’s expanding strategic activities in the region—including in the Gulf of Thailand—have raised concerns over regional stability. Some notable large-scale projects proposed or speculated include:

• The Funan Techo Canal (a conceptual project similar to the Thai Canal), which, if realized, would link the Andaman Sea to the Gulf of Thailand. This would significantly alter maritime logistics and potentially give strategic control over a major regional shipping route.
  
• Darasakor Airport, which has raised suspicions that it could be part of China’s broader strategy to expand its military reach. There are concerns that such infrastructure projects could be repurposed for military use in the future.
  

China’s growing footprint in Thailand and the broader region has prompted the United States to consider countermeasures. These may include deepening security cooperation with ASEAN allies or even the potential deployment of military assets in strategic locations within or near Thailand—such as areas close to the Strait of Malacca or the southern Gulf of Thailand—should tensions escalate.

Consequences for Thailand may include:

• A precarious balancing act, where Thailand must manage its relationships with both superpowers with heightened sensitivity and caution.
  
• Risk of becoming a battleground for influence, as strategic competition between China and the U.S. could turn parts of Thailand into geopolitical flashpoints.
  
• Strategic alignment pressures, where Thailand may be forced to make choices about whether to join competing military or economic blocs—such as the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) or China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Overall, the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry is pressuring Thailand to carefully craft its foreign policy strategy in order to safeguard national interests amid a shifting global power dynamic.

✅What Thailand Can Do Amid U.S.-China Tensions

To navigate this complex geopolitical landscape, Thailand can adopt several strategies to safeguard its national interests and maintain regional stability:

1. Strengthening Diplomatic Neutrality

Thailand can continue to position itself as a neutral player, advocating for diplomacy, dialogue, and peaceful conflict resolution. By maintaining balanced relations with both China and the U.S., Thailand can act as a mediator or facilitator for dialogue in regional forums such as ASEAN, the East Asia Summit, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). This diplomatic neutrality could strengthen Thailand’s role as a bridge between the two superpowers while protecting its sovereignty and economic interests.

2. Diversifying Trade and Investment Partnerships

To reduce dependency on any single country, Thailand can diversify its trade and investment sources. This includes exploring new markets and strengthening ties with other global players such as the European Union, Japan, India, and Australia. By reducing overreliance on China and the U.S., Thailand can protect its economy from external shocks and geopolitical risks.

3. Enhancing Regional Security Cooperation

Thailand should continue to bolster its security alliances, both within ASEAN and with external powers. While maintaining its historical military cooperation with the U.S., Thailand can also enhance its defense and security relationships with China, especially in areas such as counterterrorism, disaster response, and maritime security. This could help ensure that Thailand remains secure amidst regional power shifts.

4. Promoting Economic Resilience and Innovation

In addition to balancing political relationships, Thailand should focus on building economic resilience. This involves investing in key sectors such as technology, innovation, and green energy to reduce dependence on external political dynamics. Strengthening domestic industries and fostering local entrepreneurship can help Thailand weather economic disruptions caused by global tensions.

5. Promoting Regional Economic Integration

Thailand can also take an active role in regional economic initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) to enhance trade opportunities within the region while ensuring that it does not become caught in the crossfire between China and the U.S. Regional integration can help create a more stable and cooperative economic environment in Southeast Asia, reducing the potential for conflict spillover.

💢Legal Perspective: The Role of Lawyer Amid U.S.-China Tensions

Lawyers—particularly those specializing in international law, international trade law, and security law—play a vital role in helping both the Thai public and private sectors respond effectively to geopolitical tensions between the United States and China.

🔎 1. Strategic Legal Advisory

Legal experts can provide strategic guidance by interpreting and applying key international frameworks, including:

• The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)
  Especially relevant in maritime disputes involving freedom of navigation and territorial claims.
  
• World Trade Organization (WTO) regulations
  For advising on trade measures, tariffs, and dispute resolution under multilateral rules.
  
• Participation in regional or global economic blocs
  Such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) or the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which carry legal implications for trade and investment.
  

⚖️ 2. Legal Risk Management for the Private Sector

Amid growing global uncertainty, law firms can help companies navigate cross-border legal complexities by:

• Reviewing and negotiating international contracts to address force majeure, dispute resolution clauses, and compliance with shifting regulations.
  
• Adjusting trade practices to align with emerging restrictions or policy shifts related to sanctions, export controls, or national security.
  
• Advising on sanctions compliance, ensuring businesses do not violate international embargoes or blacklists imposed by either power or their allies.
  

🕊️ 3. Dispute Resolution and International Mediation

Should territorial, economic, or maritime resource disputes arise, Thailand may need to rely on international dispute resolution mechanisms such as arbitration or negotiation under UN frameworks. Legal professionals with expertise in these areas can:

• Represent Thailand in international legal forums or tribunals.
  
• Prepare legal documentation and evidence to support the nation’s legal positions.
  
• Negotiate settlements to reduce tension and avoid escalation of conflicts.

At Wongsakorn Law Office, we believe that rising tensions between global powers necessitate comprehensive legal preparedness—especially in areas such as international business, contract management, and long-term legal strategy to mitigate future risks. Both public agencies and private enterprises are encouraged to seek legal counsel on matters involving trade disputes, foreign investment, and laws tied to foreign policy and national interest.

Moreover, in cases where current or anticipated events may impact a business or organization’s interests, our firm is ready to provide timely legal guidance and appropriate strategic responses.

Reference :  มติชนออนไลน์thac.or.th+3The 101+3มติชนออนไลน์+3

Written by : Wararat Wongpothisarn (Internship Student in Chinese Language)